Russia perceives itself to be already engaged in a conflict with NATO allies, despite the absence of direct military confrontation. This mindset allows the Kremlin to allocate resources for probing NATO defenses, identifying vulnerabilities, and testing boundaries. In a strategic move, Russia has been conducting covert actions in Europe against NATO countries, such as sabotaging Polish railway lines, disrupting Baltic Sea undersea cables, and launching aggressive campaigns to target supply chains crucial for NATO’s support of Ukraine.
The primary goals of these actions are to increase the costs for NATO’s backing of Ukraine, disrupt supply chains temporarily, and sow discord within Western nations. While Russia’s activities have not yet crossed the threshold for a military response from NATO, its use of proxies and deceptive tactics make it challenging to attribute these attacks directly to the Kremlin.
Despite some inconsistencies in the coordination and intensity of these sabotage attacks across Europe, countries like Germany, France, and Poland, which provide significant assistance to Ukraine, have been targeted more frequently than the UK. This discrepancy in targeting does not indicate a lack of interest from Russian intelligence services towards the UK, as evidenced by ongoing surveillance activities, including recent incidents like the Yantar vessel’s presence in British waters.
Russia’s intelligence networks in Europe suffered setbacks in 2022 due to the expulsion of diplomats believed to be connected to the GRU, leading to a reliance on local proxies and potential coordination challenges. However, Russia is likely to adapt and enhance its strategies over time, posing a continued risk to non-military targets in Europe and the UK.